Why Levitt’s Analysis is Awry Essay Example

Why Levitt’s Analysis is Awry Essay In chapter 3 of Freakonomics by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, Levitt demonstrates how false predictions are often led by conventional wisdom and why drug dealers still live with their moms. I agree with the author that conventional wisdom is often wrong or plainly insufficient to answer many important questions.   Crime did not keep on soaring in the 1990s, money alone does not help politicians win elections, and drinking eight glasses of water a day has never actually been shown to do a thing for one’s health.   Conventional wisdom is often shoddily formed and devilishly difficult to see through as it is associated closely with confusion of association and causation and also fallacy of composition.   While it is true that a healthy person may drink eight glasses of water each day, it does not necessarily mean that drinking eight glasses of water a day is good for one’s health.   Association and causation are entirely different.   Just like smoking cigarettes does not necessarily cause cancer – simply because two events are associated (in time, for example), it does not necessarily follow that one is the cause and the other is the effect.à ‚   People often confuse association and causation become it is convenient to assume that the apparent, easy answers are the correct ones.   The erroneous view that what is good or true for the individual is necessarily good or true for the group is another example of conventional wisdom that cannot be explained by reality in all its manifestations.   All the same, it is very convenient for people to just accept conventional wisdom, especially while the media and advertisement are also enforcing it.   This is one of the reasons why most people in the world do not turn into scientists. We will write a custom essay sample on Why Levitt’s Analysis is Awry specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on Why Levitt’s Analysis is Awry specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on Why Levitt’s Analysis is Awry specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer Indeed, it is possible to analyze the truth or untruth of conventional wisdom by asking the right questions.   There even exists a basic procedure that is used in many scientific works to avoid conventional wisdom in building and testing theories.   The procedure follows a set of guidelines.   First, the researcher decides what it is that he or she wants to explain or predict.   Second, the researcher identifies the variables that he or she believes are important to what he or she would like to explain or predict.   Third, the assumptions of the theory must be stated.   Fourth, the hypothesis must be stated.   Fifth, the theory must be tested by comparing its predictions against real-world events.   Sixth, it is recognized that if the evidence supports the theory, no further action is necessary, although it is a good idea to continue to examine the theory closely.   Seventh, if the evidence rejects the theory, the researcher must either formulate a new theory or ame nd the old theory in terms of its variables, assumptions, and hypothesis.   As an example, a researcher may have predicted that the housing market would experience a boom in the coming years.   If this does not happen, he or she is required to change the old theory or create a new one altogether.   But it if happens, the researcher would be required to continue monitoring the conditions of the market to actually prove his or her hypothesis.   The fact that the housing market actually experiences a boom does not necessarily imply that the boom will create economic growth or not turn into a slump soon enough, thereby invalidating all growth processes expected for the boom period, and which had supported the boom theory of the researcher. Bearing in mind the various stages of scientific analysis, I disagree that the drug dealers still live with their moms – as Levitt proves in chapter 3 – because they have incentives other than making profits that compel them to work at lower than the minimum wage for such a high risk job.   I believe that the main motivation for countless people who are willing to do such risky jobs is high profits for sure.   Considering the costs and benefits, as Levitt demonstrated in chapter 3; the marginal benefits for the foot soldiers to sell drugs are much smaller than the marginal costs, if indeed the income of drug dealers is very low while drug dealing is a very high risk job.   There seems to be no incentive for the foot soldiers to perform a high risk job for low incomes.   Only those who are drug addicts already may accept the job because of their poor mental condition as well as the fact that they need the drugs to keeping entering their bodily systems.   Moreov er, the marginal costs continue to increase as the longer they sell drugs on the street the more chances there are for them to get caught or shot.   Marginal benefits, on the other hand, continue to decrease.   Seeing that the marginal benefits will never equal the marginal costs, there is definitely no efficiency in drug dealing.   If Levitt is correct to state that the drug dealers are working at lower than minimum wage, then no one would want to sell drugs as human beings are rational but selfish, and risk- and effort- averse. It is important to consider the four meaningful factors that determine a wage – which Levitt uses to explain why the typical prostitute earns more than the typical architect.   The factors help explain why the typical drug dealer actually earns a high wage.   Just as little girls do not typically grow up dreaming of becoming prostitutes, individuals cannot be expected to grow up dreaming of becoming drug dealers and ending up being imprisoned or killed.   The skills of the drug dealers, while not necessarily specialized, are practiced in a very specialized context.   The job is unpleasant because of the high chances faced by the drug dealers of being imprisoned and getting killed.   Yet, the demand for service that the job fulfills is extremely large.   The office of national drug control policy has estimated that Americans spent $140 billion on illegal drugs in 1990 and about 1 in 15 Americans aged 12 and over currently uses drugs.   The estimates for worldwide drug use may also be considered to get a clearer picture of the demand situation for drugs.   After all, drug supply around the world is part of a global business with innumerable links. The incentives for the street drug dealers that Levitt demonstrated in chapter 3 do not apply to the majority of drug dealers in the United States.   The examples of drug dealers that he used are only the poor black people who have grown up in a housing project on Chicago’s south side.   To them the path to a decent legitimate job was practically invisible and crack dealing was a glamour profession.   If the same sampling bias is used on the prostitutes, they would be impossibly earning more than the architect.   Just as the typical prostitute earns more than the typical architect, the typical drug dealer earns more than most people sitting behind office desks.   Many teenage drug dealers have managed to earn well enough to be able to afford private art schools and nice cars.   Furthermore, many of the drug dealers are able to lead lives of luxury.   It is the type of neighborhood that they sell drugs in that makes the biggest difference in their lifestyles.   In other words, it is the business environment and the income of the consumers in their immediate market that actually determines whether drug dealers would live with their moms or in their personal mansions.   After all, the drug dealer who sells drugs to the rock stars and movie stars in Hollywood is not expected to live with his or her mom, while the drug dealer who deals in the tenderloin in San Francisco probably would. Levitt also compared the crack dealing business with the entertainment business in the sense that a lot of people are competing for a very few prizes in these businesses.   Criminals, like everyone else, would like to believe that maybe one day they would become the leaders of the crack cocaine dealing business and afford to lead lives of luxury.   This coincides with my belief that the monetary factor is what actually drives the drug dealers.   Levitt explained that crack dealing is similar to the glamour professions, whether they concern the movies or sports, although there is a different dynamic at play.   Swarms of bright young people throw themselves at grunt jobs that pay poorly and demand unstinting devotion as they all have to play the same game viewed as a tournament.   In the entertainment industry, like all other highly competitive industries, the workers at the bottom are poorly paid.   At the same time, however, people are usually willing to work long and har d so that they can move up and eventually get paid more.   The high-school quarterback, infamous actors and actresses, as well as musicians and designers may earn lower than the minimum wage before hitting big.   Thus, before the drug dealer or the entertainer is made famous, he or she must be poorly paid. Drug dealing is the opposite of many competitive industries in a variety of ways, despite the fact that it shares important business principles with them, e.g. the quest to maximize profits.   There is no dearth of jobs in the drug business, as the demand is extremely huge.   Additionally, there is very high risk attached to the job, while the job itself does not make the drug dealers proud.   Needless to say, people are not expected to be attracted to drug dealing as a job unless they are drug addicts who do not mind the risks.   Hence, it is important to consider the labor supply of the market for drugs.   As the demand is extremely large and inelastic because cocaine and crack are very addictive, the prices of the drugs are higher then the equilibrium price.   Levitt mentioned that cocaine is, indeed, very expensive.   It is but commonsense that the selling of cocaine must yield high profits.   Indeed, this is the very incentive for which the labor supply increases . This is also the strong incentive that causes the drug business to expand.   After all, the drug business is virtually uncontrollable and constantly expanding throughout the world.   Oscar Danilo Blandon helped to establish a link between Colombian cocaine cartels and inner-city crack merchants.   According to his explanation, the supply curve shifted outwards as the price of relevant resources decreased because there was no middle man.   Thus, the invention of crack as the invention of a new technology resulted in increased supply.   The drug dealers around the globe are making bigger profits than the technology experts perhaps.   People continue to be more driven to sell drugs. Drugs dealers do, indeed, make a lot of money. They still live with their moms because the nature of this business involves high risks.   Thus, it is very unstable.   Because of the high chances of getting caught or shot for drug dealing, many dealers quit before they have made enough money to support themselves for the rest of their lives.   Even so, there are drug dealers in America who make a huge amount of money selling to the rich and famous.   Indeed, the income of a drug dealer is dependent on the socioeconomic status of his or her customers.   The business is unregulated in most parts of the world, so therefore its prices are unregulated.   Moreover, the expanding drug business around the world proves that drug dealing must be highly profitable for numberless people.   The drug business must also have its role to play in global economic growth.   If it is underground, it does not necessarily mean that the business does not help the economy grow.   Thus, conv entional wisdom must always be questioned for the researchers to find the best possible answers to our burning questions.   Settling for less, that is, inappropriate albeit simplistic answers, is not sufficient for the level of intelligence that is conducive to high economic growth.

Charles Darwins Biography

Charles Darwins Biography We are a part of a great life on our planet. For many years, we tried to understand the world, where we live. We also tried to find out the roots and the source of our appearance. Therefore, there were suggested many theories concerning the way of our appearance in the world.Advertising We will write a custom essay sample on Charles Darwins Biography specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More Some of these theories are well-known for us, and some of them are still hidden or, at least, hard to comprehend. Paying attention to the well-known theories of our origin, we can observe a great number of variants, each of which presents to us something new about our history and the way, how we entered this great and interesting world. There should be also admitted that in different times, there were different theories that were considered to be the only true variants of our origin and some of them were still regarded to be false. In spite of the fact tha t some religious conservatives reject Darwin’s theories (Gelernter et al. 52), Darwin with his ideas is well-known all around the world. His theories enjoy wide popularity among representatives of different cultures and nations. His book â€Å"The Origin of Species† presented a new way of understanding our origin and our life. However, there are still many issues in Darwin’s work, which have to be analyzed and be better understood by us. Therefore, there can be observed many attempts to understand Darwin: Darwin’s theory touches upon very difficult and important things and observe different ways of using the word â€Å"nature†. To comprehend Darwin’s ideas and intentions, it is very important to understand his world and his attitude to this life and to realize that by Darwin, nature is a great part of us. The first thing that is very important for understanding Darwin is the analysis of his life, the way he worked and understood this great w orld. We know that Darwin lived in the industrial world, and we can observe the facts, which reflect this in his works, when he uses metaphors reflected the world of business, factories and the empire (Crook 160). Therefore, that is necessary to mention that such a situation influenced Darwin very much, as that is not possible to live and to work without feeling the influence of time. That is also possible to suppose that Darwin tried to compare the system that exits in nature and in business. Because in his works we can observe the situation that all the species live in great competition, and that is why some species can change some other species (Darwin 67-90). The same situation we can observe in the sphere of business. So, we can say that Darwin tried to see and to understand the world through the glasses of the time, when he lived and worked. Such a statement is very important for understanding Darwin.Advertising Looking for essay on philosophy? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More The other thing that is quiet necessary for understanding Darwin is the meaning of the word â€Å"nature† in his work. For all of us, the word â€Å"nature† means something very important and necessary. However, each person understands the meaning of this world in different ways. And such a situation can be explained with the fact that that is almost impossible to give one general explanation to this word. Many people use this word as the second possible name of the world. Some people think that nature is just a small part of our great world. As for Darwin, here we can say that he uses the word â€Å"nature† in different ways. For example, he uses this word in order to show our word: â€Å"†¦ in the hands of man, apply in nature†¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Darwin 67). In this situation, we can understand the word â€Å"nature† in the meaning of the whole world. This meaning is quiet understandabl e and clear for us. That is also possible to say that Darwin understands and really thinks that nature is the world, where we live and where we create something new. That means that we can influence this world. We can change something in many different ways. There is also an idea that the time of Darwin was reflected in his works. As in the industrial world people tried to change the world very much in order to make it more convenient for their life. Darwin tried to show that people always tried to change the world, as that was possible to do that. Therefore, we understand nature as just the world where we live and which we try to change according to our own desires. We can also observe such meaning of the word â€Å"nature† in the next Darwin’s words from his work â€Å"The Origin of Species†: â€Å"†¦we should then have places in the economy of nature †¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Darwin 67-90). Here we can also observe the situation when Darwin understands nature as our world, with its important components and systems. We just take this world and live in it, of course, changing it according to our way of life. For example, when talking about different species, Darwin states that they all already exist in nature, in our world, by some of them disappear and some new species appear (Darwin 67-90). Therefore, we can say that we can change this world and even create some other one. At the same time Darwin uses the word â€Å"nature† in some other meaning. For example, in the Darwin’s words: â€Å"†¦ so could Nature but far more easily†¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Darwin 67-90).Advertising We will write a custom essay sample on Charles Darwins Biography specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More Here, nature stands as a great power that is much stronger than man is. Therefore, Darwin writes this word with the capital letter in order to show its importance and value. The great power of Nature can change na ture as our world, according to its own plans. In addition, that is necessary to mention that in the text Darwin uses the pronoun â€Å"she† instead of the word â€Å"Nature† (Darwin 67-90). In this way he shows that Nature is something alive and that it exists and lives together with man and all other species. We can also observe the word â€Å"Nature† in the next part of the text of â€Å"The Origin of Species†: â€Å"†¦Nature cares nothing for appearances†¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Darwin 67-90). Here that can be understood that Nature cannot be seen but it can be felt, and that man can be seen but he cannot influence his life from the inside Darwin 67-90). From these words we can understand that Nature and man act in different spheres and planes. Nature is something very important and very necessary for our life, and we cannot do something without it, as it created us. Therefore, that is quiet wrong to think that man is the lord of the world. Everything in the world is just under control of Nature. That is necessary to say that Darwin tried to show the role of Nature and the role of man in our world. In The Decent of Man, Darwin evaluated a change as something of â€Å"a quite unexpected nature† (Darwin et al., 100). Comparing Nature and nature, we can say that Darwin showed nature as the world where we live, and Nature as the power that exists in all spheres and areas of this world. He also wanted to show that man lives between nature and Nature, as he lives in this world, changes it, but , of course, in accordance with the rules of Nature. Therefore, man can change nature, and Nature can change man. However, this power of Nature is difficult for understanding. We can change nature, and in this way we can make other species appear or disappear (Darwin 67-90). However, Nature can change us. For example, the power of Nature can change a climate of countries, and in this way Nature can change our conditions of life, and we are po werless not to let Nature do that (Darwin 67-90). We can also take weather. We cannot make it rain or snow, and at the same time we cannot make it stop raining or snowing. In such a situation we can really see that we are powerless, and that we are just creatures of Nature. Therefore, Nature is a really great power that can do everything with this world. Therefore, some people are really afraid of this power, as it can destroy us. That is important to say that such fears are right, as nowadays we can observe many catastrophes that cannot be prevented by man. Darwin understood the existence of the great power of Nature. And using the word â€Å"nature† in different ways, Darwin wanted to show that there is the world where we live, and that there is the great power of Nature that influences our lives.Advertising Looking for essay on philosophy? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More Comparison of these two meanings of the word â€Å"nature† is very important for understanding Darwin’s theory, as he wanted to show not just the way of our origin and the world where we live, but also he wanted to show as the great power of Nature. In this way Darwin wanted to show us that we are not the masters of this world, and that we are just a great part of it. In conclusion, that is possible to say that we all live in nature, and sometimes we do really think that we are the lords of this world, and that we can do everything with it, but we are mistaken. Very often, these mistakes bring us to catastrophes. Nevertheless, there are many people, who try to understand the real course of nature. Among these people we can observe Darwin, who tried to show to the whole world the real nature and the real situation in the world. We should try to understand him, and in order to do that we should investigate the questions of Darwin’s work very attentively. For examp le, we should try to understand how Darwin sees the nature, how he understands it. Taking into consideration our observations, we can say that there were different variants of nature in Darwin’s works. Understanding of these variants is very important for understanding Darwin. That is clear that Darwin’s theories can help us to make more right actions and to understand that not everything in this world is under our control. We should try to live in agreement with the great power of Nature, by means of not destroying its other creature – our great world. Darwin was a very great scientist, who made a very great contribution into the development of our world. We should study his works, in order to understand this world better. Our life is in our hands. However, we should take into account the rest parts of this world. Nature is our home, and that is also a home for many other species. Therefore we should not be the only masters of this world. Crook, Paul. Darwins Origin of Species: A Biography. The Australian Journal of Politics and History 53.1 (2007): 160+. Darwin, Charles. The Origin of Species. Ed. Gillian Beer. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996. Dawrin, Charles, Zimmer, Carl, and Waal, Frans. The Decent of Man. New York: Plume, 2007. Gelernter, David, Thomas Fleming, Michael Behe, and John O. Mcginnis. The Descent of Man: Can Conservative Concepts Be Derived from Evolution? Critics Respond to John O. McGinnis. National Review 9 Mar. 1998: 52+.